Headwinds — rough weather for risk
10y yield: high & rising — headwind · 3m yield (Fed stance): waking up — watch · Oil: waking up — watch
Rough tape — the gate judges new buys harder, swings need the wider band, ballast earns its keep. Nothing here is an order.
S&P 500 · 1Y 755 +22.4%
10y yield +10%3m yield (Fed stance) +5%Oil +21%Fear (VIX) +4%

Macro weather — each series vs its own 5-year history

SeriesNowvs own 5y26wRead
10y yield4.5793%+10%HIGH & RISING — headwind
3m yield (Fed stance)3.7036%+5%waking up — watch
Dollar100.9640%+2%mid, quiet
Oil71.4133%+21%waking up — watch
Fear (VIX)15.0323%+4%waking up — watch
Credit stress (HYG/LQD)0.7499%+2%calm — tailwind
CPI inflation YoY lags3.9%58%+1.2ptwaking up — watch
Fed funds rate lags3.6%26%-0.1ptcalm — tailwind
Unemployment lags4.2%61%-0.2ptmid, quiet
Market rows are fast and honest · rows tagged “lags” are regime context, never timing.

News captions

The caption on a move — never the signal.